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#1 2018-01-04 20:54:09 - 2018 USM baseball season predictions

AndreWhere (571)
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From: Dunwoody, GA
Registered: 2017-08-24
Posts: 4,980

2018 USM baseball season predictions

How do things turn out in the last sport where USM matters nationally?

National championship?

College World Series appearance?

Super-regional host?

Super-regional appearance?

Something less?

Post your predictions. A mini-batting-helmet and a 12-pack of ODoul's are on the line here*.

*No actual beer or mini-helmet will be provided, only bitching rights thereto.


Bring back Reed V. "Pie" TurkPalmer Eustachy.

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#2 2018-01-04 20:56:46 - 2018 USM baseball season predictions

beagle (173)
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From: Cloverleaf Mall parking lot
Registered: 2017-08-25
Posts: 1,260

Re: 2018 USM baseball season predictions

I have a very long post typed out when I get back from the basketball game. Give me an hour or two and I’ll post it. Full thoughts on our schedule and the 2018 team.


"We played 12 SEC games when I was here, and 14 of those were on the road!"

- PW Underwood (RIP)

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#3 2018-01-04 23:06:58 - 2018 USM baseball season predictions

beagle (173)
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From: Cloverleaf Mall parking lot
Registered: 2017-08-25
Posts: 1,260

Re: 2018 USM baseball season predictions

Decided to put this in a word doc instead of posting the whole thing on the site. Should save some space (and scrolling) for people.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/11oH … I0WQIz3AHM

Last edited by beagle (2018-01-05 10:16:40)


"We played 12 SEC games when I was here, and 14 of those were on the road!"

- PW Underwood (RIP)

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#4 2018-01-05 09:20:57 - 2018 USM baseball season predictions

Nugget's Ghostbuster (543)
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From: U.S. Department of Interior
Registered: 2017-08-25
Posts: 2,214

Re: 2018 USM baseball season predictions

giphy.gif


"In this edition of To The Top, I'll share how I spent Eagle Club donations on a 7-day wilderness experience on the Superior Hiking Trail in northern Minnesota."

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#5 2018-01-05 10:06:04 - 2018 USM baseball season predictions

99beers (240)
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From: Uranus
Registered: 2017-08-25
Posts: 1,199

Re: 2018 USM baseball season predictions

summary?


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#6 2018-01-05 10:12:19 - 2018 USM baseball season predictions

beagle (173)
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From: Cloverleaf Mall parking lot
Registered: 2017-08-25
Posts: 1,260

Re: 2018 USM baseball season predictions

Yeah, I should have given cliffs for people who didn’t want to slog through 3750+ words. In fact, I might put that post in a Google doc so it won’t take up a bunch of space on this thread page.

Basically, we’re going to score a lot of runs and probably give up a lot of runs too. Offense won’t be as good as it was last year, but it will still be strong. Wallner being available to pitch would be huge for us. This is probably a bubble team and will likely be swept by State to open the year.

Last edited by beagle (2018-01-05 10:17:01)


"We played 12 SEC games when I was here, and 14 of those were on the road!"

- PW Underwood (RIP)

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#7 2018-01-05 11:14:54 - 2018 USM baseball season predictions

Black Diamond Reb (212)
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From: Palmers Crossing, Mississippi
Registered: 2017-08-25
Posts: 789

Re: 2018 USM baseball season predictions

Win some, lose some, worry about hosting, beat South Alabama and Western New Hampshire in dramatic fashion in a regional, get beat twice by an SEC school, spend the summer getting excited about SUNWACUSA football.


"I don't think being in the 6th best conference is too bad."

"Look for Crickets Robertson to be one of the first 64 players chosen in the draft."

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#8 2018-01-05 11:37:35 - 2018 USM baseball season predictions

AndreWhere (571)
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From: Dunwoody, GA
Registered: 2017-08-24
Posts: 4,980

Re: 2018 USM baseball season predictions

Black Diamond Reb wrote:

Win some, lose some, worry about hosting, beat South Alabama and Western New Hampshire in dramatic fashion in a regional, get beat twice by an SEC school, spend the summer getting excited about SUNWACUSA football.

How plausible.


Bring back Reed V. "Pie" TurkPalmer Eustachy.

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#9 2018-01-05 14:45:43 - 2018 USM baseball season predictions

eaglenjxn (11)
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Registered: 2018-01-04
Posts: 34

Re: 2018 USM baseball season predictions

beagle wrote:

Decided to put this in a word doc instead of posting the whole thing on the site. Should save some space (and scrolling) for people.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/11oH … I0WQIz3AHM

Really good post.  Thanks for that. 

-Pitching:  I don't really know anything about the new players. I know a little about Ostrander's staffs at Tech but won't pretend I know anything about how good he is as at developing pitchers.  Harris was obviously great throughout his career.  The rest of that staff struggled most of last year and their inability to pitch against good teams cost them a bid.  I certainly look at a guy like Casey Sutton and wonder what in the world happened to him.  Was he exceeding his abilities as a junior or did he regress as a senior?  On the other hand, Ostrander seemed to get a lot of his staff two years ago and everyone loves the hire.  I'll trust that he will do well.

Say what you want about Federico (if it is negative, I've probably said it) but his pitching staffs always had a pretty high floor. I've certainly argued that a lot of our pitchers never reached their full potential, and I think we needed an upgrade. But you can't argue that Federico always found guys to effectively fill roles to form a competent pitching staff. Simply put, things were stable under him. Going in, this looks like a year where Ostrander will probably have to channel some of that and get creative to find guys to effectively fill roles. 

Unless something changed significantly, I see no way Powers works out as a starter.  I thought he had a lot of potential as a freshman and expected him to improve last year.  Nope. I've never trusted him outside of lefty-lefty situations and he isn't particularly reliable in those.  Maybe something changes with the pitching coach but lack of control or velocity tends to create some problems. 

Sandlin:  Starting should be a last resort.  Sandlin has great stuff.  But a significant part of a sidearmer's effectiveness is novelty. If batters get used to the release point and recognizing pitches (e.g. his frisbee slider), they lose some of that.  Also, he can really only pitch over half of the plate against good teams.  The State game was a good example, as they were hanging out over the plate.  That's not to say that Sandlin couldn't be a good starter....but he wouldn't be as effective as he is out of the pen.  My concern would be that you're trading a lights out reliever for a pretty good to average starter. Whether or not that is worth it depends on finding starting pitching.  It may be a situation like Harris at Tech.  He was moved to the starting rotation because Tech could not get ANYTHING going at that time in their rotation.  They were awful.  It reached a point where that risk was worth it....and it paid off.  Unless we can't even find a good Friday night guy by conference season, I'm not really thinking about moving Sandlin to the rotation.

I don't trust Smith.  His control has to be absolutely pinpoint because his stuff isn't very good. Everything has to be low in the zone and outside for him to be effective.  He had some games last year where he did that tremendously.  His margin of error is so small, though.  And good hitting teams will still hit that and if he misses at all, they will hammer him (e.g. State). 

What do you think of Nelms?  I could see him being a decent Sunday or midweek guy.

Agree with you on hitting. Not many questions there but a dropoff from last year is almost certain simply because last year's offense was so damn good and what we lost. I like Guidry at the 5 spot, and I think he will have a breakout year if we don't freaking platoon him.  Bowen needs to be in the lineup more this year.  He was one of our hottest hitters going into the Regional, and I don't believe he got one single at-bat.

Last edited by eaglenjxn (2018-01-05 14:48:55)

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#10 2018-01-05 15:47:16 - 2018 USM baseball season predictions

beagle (173)
Member
From: Cloverleaf Mall parking lot
Registered: 2017-08-25
Posts: 1,260

Re: 2018 USM baseball season predictions

eaglenjxn wrote:
beagle wrote:

Decided to put this in a word doc instead of posting the whole thing on the site. Should save some space (and scrolling) for people.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/11oH … I0WQIz3AHM

Really good post.  Thanks for that. 

-Pitching:  I don't really know anything about the new players. I know a little about Ostrander's staffs at Tech but won't pretend I know anything about how good he is as at developing pitchers.  Harris was obviously great throughout his career.  The rest of that staff struggled most of last year and their inability to pitch against good teams cost them a bid.  I certainly look at a guy like Casey Sutton and wonder what in the world happened to him.  Was he exceeding his abilities as a junior or did he regress as a senior?  On the other hand, Ostrander seemed to get a lot of his staff two years ago and everyone loves the hire.  I'll trust that he will do well.

Say what you want about Federico (if it is negative, I've probably said it) but his pitching staffs always had a pretty high floor. I've certainly argued that a lot of our pitchers never reached their full potential, and I think we needed an upgrade. But you can't argue that Federico always found guys to effectively fill roles to form a competent pitching staff. Simply put, things were stable under him. Going in, this looks like a year where Ostrander will probably have to channel some of that and get creative to find guys to effectively fill roles. 

Unless something changed significantly, I see no way Powers works out as a starter.  I thought he had a lot of potential as a freshman and expected him to improve last year.  Nope. I've never trusted him outside of lefty-lefty situations and he isn't particularly reliable in those.  Maybe something changes with the pitching coach but lack of control or velocity tends to create some problems. 

Sandlin:  Starting should be a last resort.  Sandlin has great stuff.  But a significant part of a sidearmer's effectiveness is novelty. If batters get used to the release point and recognizing pitches (e.g. his frisbee slider), they lose some of that.  Also, he can really only pitch over half of the plate against good teams.  The State game was a good example, as they were hanging out over the plate.  That's not to say that Sandlin couldn't be a good starter....but he wouldn't be as effective as he is out of the pen.  My concern would be that you're trading a lights out reliever for a pretty good to average starter. Whether or not that is worth it depends on finding starting pitching.  It may be a situation like Harris at Tech.  He was moved to the starting rotation because Tech could not get ANYTHING going at that time in their rotation.  They were awful.  It reached a point where that risk was worth it....and it paid off.  Unless we can't even find a good Friday night guy by conference season, I'm not really thinking about moving Sandlin to the rotation.

I don't trust Smith.  His control has to be absolutely pinpoint because his stuff isn't very good. Everything has to be low in the zone and outside for him to be effective.  He had some games last year where he did that tremendously.  His margin of error is so small, though.  And good hitting teams will still hit that and if he misses at all, they will hammer him (e.g. State). 

What do you think of Nelms?  I could see him being a decent Sunday or midweek guy.

Agree with you on hitting. Not many questions there but a dropoff from last year is almost certain simply because last year's offense was so damn good and what we lost. I like Guidry at the 5 spot, and I think he will have a breakout year if we don't freaking platoon him.  Bowen needs to be in the lineup more this year.  He was one of our hottest hitters going into the Regional, and I don't believe he got one single at-bat.

Re: Ostrander. It’s definitely not a sure thing that he works out. But it does seem that most people like the hire. The thing I kept hearing during the fall season is that he’s a teacher (teaching the mechanics of different pitches, when and why to throw them, etc). We will see. If you look at Nate Harris, he was average to below-average in JUCO ball. Ostrander turned him into the conference pitcher of the year.

I’m not confident at all in Powers either, but Berry wants a lefty in there. Powers had a solid fall per the scrimmage reports. Word is that his velocity is up a tad (didn’t hear a number, I’m curious as to what the exact number was) and his breaking ball was sharp.

Re: Sandlin as a starter. It’s unlikely, but I threw it out there, because it’s possible in a worst-case scenario. The only way that could maybe happen is if the rotation tanks early. He is primarily a sidearm guy, but does throw overhand from time to time. If named a starter, he could probably start throwing overhand exclusively.

Smith is a decent Sunday guy. He’s not very talented, but he’s serviceable if he’s keeping the ball down. Big if, like you alluded to. He was not right for the State game in the regional. After he was pulled, he was puking his guts out in the dugout. Not sure if it was extreme nerves or if he was sick (maybe a little of both).

I look for Nelms to start the first midweek game at Stanky. 5.21 ERA/1.42 WHIP in 18+ innings last year. Not terrible for a true freshman. He'll throw strikes, but needs to miss more bats. If he gives us good starts in our first 2-3 midweek games (USA, UNO, Alabama) then he could be a weekend guy if the rotation is struggling. The potential is there for Nelms.

I didn’t even think about putting Guidry in the 5-hole. That wouldn’t be a bad option at all. Could move Keating/Hoard to 6 and Slater to 7. We need Keating and Hoard to step up. This offense needs some pop from the right side.

Bowen did not play in the regional because he got hurt in the CUSA tournament, apparently. I never heard any specifics, but he didn’t play in the summer either. This team will probably need to gorilla ball their way to a regional, so I’d much rather have the better offensive option at catcher over the guy with a slightly better arm but weaker bat.

Last edited by beagle (2018-01-06 03:33:57)


"We played 12 SEC games when I was here, and 14 of those were on the road!"

- PW Underwood (RIP)

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