eaglenjxn wrote:Really good post. Thanks for that.
-Pitching: I don't really know anything about the new players. I know a little about Ostrander's staffs at Tech but won't pretend I know anything about how good he is as at developing pitchers. Harris was obviously great throughout his career. The rest of that staff struggled most of last year and their inability to pitch against good teams cost them a bid. I certainly look at a guy like Casey Sutton and wonder what in the world happened to him. Was he exceeding his abilities as a junior or did he regress as a senior? On the other hand, Ostrander seemed to get a lot of his staff two years ago and everyone loves the hire. I'll trust that he will do well.
Say what you want about Federico (if it is negative, I've probably said it) but his pitching staffs always had a pretty high floor. I've certainly argued that a lot of our pitchers never reached their full potential, and I think we needed an upgrade. But you can't argue that Federico always found guys to effectively fill roles to form a competent pitching staff. Simply put, things were stable under him. Going in, this looks like a year where Ostrander will probably have to channel some of that and get creative to find guys to effectively fill roles.
Unless something changed significantly, I see no way Powers works out as a starter. I thought he had a lot of potential as a freshman and expected him to improve last year. Nope. I've never trusted him outside of lefty-lefty situations and he isn't particularly reliable in those. Maybe something changes with the pitching coach but lack of control or velocity tends to create some problems.
Sandlin: Starting should be a last resort. Sandlin has great stuff. But a significant part of a sidearmer's effectiveness is novelty. If batters get used to the release point and recognizing pitches (e.g. his frisbee slider), they lose some of that. Also, he can really only pitch over half of the plate against good teams. The State game was a good example, as they were hanging out over the plate. That's not to say that Sandlin couldn't be a good starter....but he wouldn't be as effective as he is out of the pen. My concern would be that you're trading a lights out reliever for a pretty good to average starter. Whether or not that is worth it depends on finding starting pitching. It may be a situation like Harris at Tech. He was moved to the starting rotation because Tech could not get ANYTHING going at that time in their rotation. They were awful. It reached a point where that risk was worth it....and it paid off. Unless we can't even find a good Friday night guy by conference season, I'm not really thinking about moving Sandlin to the rotation.
I don't trust Smith. His control has to be absolutely pinpoint because his stuff isn't very good. Everything has to be low in the zone and outside for him to be effective. He had some games last year where he did that tremendously. His margin of error is so small, though. And good hitting teams will still hit that and if he misses at all, they will hammer him (e.g. State).
What do you think of Nelms? I could see him being a decent Sunday or midweek guy.
Agree with you on hitting. Not many questions there but a dropoff from last year is almost certain simply because last year's offense was so damn good and what we lost. I like Guidry at the 5 spot, and I think he will have a breakout year if we don't freaking platoon him. Bowen needs to be in the lineup more this year. He was one of our hottest hitters going into the Regional, and I don't believe he got one single at-bat.
Re: Ostrander. It’s definitely not a sure thing that he works out. But it does seem that most people like the hire. The thing I kept hearing during the fall season is that he’s a teacher (teaching the mechanics of different pitches, when and why to throw them, etc). We will see. If you look at Nate Harris, he was average to below-average in JUCO ball. Ostrander turned him into the conference pitcher of the year.
I’m not confident at all in Powers either, but Berry wants a lefty in there. Powers had a solid fall per the scrimmage reports. Word is that his velocity is up a tad (didn’t hear a number, I’m curious as to what the exact number was) and his breaking ball was sharp.
Re: Sandlin as a starter. It’s unlikely, but I threw it out there, because it’s possible in a worst-case scenario. The only way that could maybe happen is if the rotation tanks early. He is primarily a sidearm guy, but does throw overhand from time to time. If named a starter, he could probably start throwing overhand exclusively.
Smith is a decent Sunday guy. He’s not very talented, but he’s serviceable if he’s keeping the ball down. Big if, like you alluded to. He was not right for the State game in the regional. After he was pulled, he was puking his guts out in the dugout. Not sure if it was extreme nerves or if he was sick (maybe a little of both).
I look for Nelms to start the first midweek game at Stanky. 5.21 ERA/1.42 WHIP in 18+ innings last year. Not terrible for a true freshman. He'll throw strikes, but needs to miss more bats. If he gives us good starts in our first 2-3 midweek games (USA, UNO, Alabama) then he could be a weekend guy if the rotation is struggling. The potential is there for Nelms.
I didn’t even think about putting Guidry in the 5-hole. That wouldn’t be a bad option at all. Could move Keating/Hoard to 6 and Slater to 7. We need Keating and Hoard to step up. This offense needs some pop from the right side.
Bowen did not play in the regional because he got hurt in the CUSA tournament, apparently. I never heard any specifics, but he didn’t play in the summer either. This team will probably need to gorilla ball their way to a regional, so I’d much rather have the better offensive option at catcher over the guy with a slightly better arm but weaker bat.
Last edited by beagle (2018-01-06 02:33:57)
"We played 12 SEC games when I was here, and 14 of those were on the road!"
- PW Underwood (RIP)