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AndreWhere (1252)

Member

From: Decatur, GA

Registered: 2017-08-24

Posts: 8,746

Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

This one is tricky. USM is favored by 9, but tends to underperform in conference games, often severely.

Also, USM has covered the spread in the last 5 games, going back to 2016. So, simple stock market-style analysis would suggest that the team will not cover the spread tonight.

The said, I just don't think UNT is any good. They've given up 59, 54, 31, and 46 points in their games this season. The got into a shootout with expansion year UAB last week. They run a effective, exciting offense, but I don't think they'll accomplish much more than ULM did last week.

Returning to Vegas-style analysis, consider that before the current streak of covering games, USM failed to cover for about 5 consecutive games. Vegas does not have USM figured out, at all. Is this because the team is worse than Vegas imagines, or better?

If you frame the question that way, I've got to go with "better."

31-17 USM

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Bring back Reed V. "Pie" TurkPalmer Eustachy.

TheDudeAbides (59)

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Registered: 2017-09-04

Posts: 103

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

USM 35
UNT 24

tg300 (439)

Member

Registered: 2017-08-25

Posts: 1,143

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

Tater tots 41

C UNTs 21

Ace Barker (260)

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From: Bougherville SC

Registered: 2017-08-25

Posts: 554

Website

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

USM 1 UNT 0

Ace...

TheChosenOne (295)

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Registered: 2017-08-26

Posts: 749

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

38 - 17. Southern Miss of course

USMstang (303)

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From: 7 miles North of Cat Island

Registered: 2017-08-25

Posts: 1,048

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

USM 34-17

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Still sleeping with a Dixie Darling!

beagle (173)

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From: Cloverleaf Mall parking lot

Registered: 2017-08-25

Posts: 1,260

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

30-21 USM

BTW, there should be a tiebreaker if people guess the same score. Could be attendance? I'll guess 21,041 is your announced total.

Last edited by beagle (2017-09-30 13:02:59)

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"We played 12 SEC games when I was here, and 14 of those were on the road!"

- PW Underwood (RIP)

AndreWhere (1252)

Member

From: Decatur, GA

Registered: 2017-08-24

Posts: 8,746

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

30-21 USM

BTW, there should be a tiebreaker if people guess the same score. Could be attendance? I'll guess 21,041 is your announced total.

Excellent idea. I'll guess 27,311. Cool weather and a night kickoff help. Also, Gilbert's secretary finally realizes she's had her calculator set to base 16 mode all year when her attempt to calculate student attendance yields a result with an "A" and an "E" in it.

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Bring back Reed V. "Pie" TurkPalmer Eustachy.

beagle (173)

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From: Cloverleaf Mall parking lot

Registered: 2017-08-25

Posts: 1,260

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

The guy that used to run our tickets is at Troy now. They've played 2 home games since he's been there, one of which was their highest total ever and the other was the 3rd highest ever. LOL.

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"We played 12 SEC games when I was here, and 14 of those were on the road!"

- PW Underwood (RIP)

tg300 (439)

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Registered: 2017-08-25

Posts: 1,143

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

30-21 USM

BTW, there should be a tiebreaker if people guess the same score. Could be attendance? I'll guess 21,041 is your announced total.

Bullshit.

If you guess the same score as one that is already posted, you are disqualified and should feel shame.

admin (289)

Administrator

Registered: 2017-08-24

Posts: 2,244

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

30-21 USM

BTW, there should be a tiebreaker if people guess the same score. Could be attendance? I'll guess 21,041 is your announced total.

Bullshit.

If you guess the same score as one that is already posted, you are disqualified and should feel shame.

Kind of like "The Price is Right." Another parallel: if you feel all the posts are wildly optimistic, you can guess "UNT 99, USM 0." Conversely, if you think everyone's sold USM short, you can guess "USM 99, UNT 0." It really is a thinking man's game.

Black Diamond Reb (418)

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From: Palmers Crossing, Mississippi

Registered: 2017-08-25

Posts: 1,302

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

Who 1

Cares 0

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"I don't think being in the 6th best conference is too bad."
"Look for Crickets Robertson to be one of the first 64 players chosen in the draft."
"Went to Starkville and came within one bad throw of taking the series."

SoMs Eagle (189)

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Registered: 2017-08-29

Posts: 509

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

Who 1

Cares 0

You obviously do. You're spending time here so .....

Black Diamond Reb (418)

Member

From: Palmers Crossing, Mississippi

Registered: 2017-08-25

Posts: 1,302

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

You obviously do.

Damn right .. No way I'm missing the SUNWACUSA opener.

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"I don't think being in the 6th best conference is too bad."
"Look for Crickets Robertson to be one of the first 64 players chosen in the draft."
"Went to Starkville and came within one bad throw of taking the series."

southern miss slacker (304)

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Registered: 2017-08-28

Posts: 1,455

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

what do we win if we predict correctly?

admin (289)

Administrator

Registered: 2017-08-24

Posts: 2,244

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

what do we win if we predict correctly?

An NFL mini helmet from you and a pair of tickets to any remaining home game from me... not necessarily in the East upper deck.

Here are the rules for winning the tickets (leaving the door open for feedback / changes received before kickoff):

1) You have to guess the winner correctly. If you guess USM 29-28 and it's UNT 29-28, you can't win.

2) Among people guessing the winner correctly, I'll subtract your UNT prediction from the UNT score, do the same for the USM numbers, take the absolute values of both results, and add them. He who ends up with the lowest number wins.

3) Tiebreaker is announced attendance prediction. If you don't make a prediction, you lose ties. If two or more people tie and neither made a prediction, they share the win, but no one gets tickets.

An example:

User A predicts USM 45, UNT 43
User B predicts USM 28, UNT 20

Final score is USM 30, UNT 28

User A is off by 15 points for USM and 15 points for UNT, 30 total.
User B is off by 2 points for USM and 8 points for UNT, 10 total.

Win goes to User B.

The alternative would be to simply use margin of victory instead of looking at the specific scores. That can allow for a winner who completely failed to predict what sort of game we'd have, but got the pointspread right.

Again, I'm open to feedback.

southern miss slacker (304)

Member

Registered: 2017-08-28

Posts: 1,455

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

..ok, you have to get your picks in before kickoff. that's before the nasal stylings of jonathan cox says. "and we're under way here at the pebble"

southern miss slacker (304)

Member

Registered: 2017-08-28

Posts: 1,455

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

dude, you won't believe this. so I'm going through this box I have with the mini helmets and there is a paper bag in there. I had no idea what was in this bag, so I open the bag and there is like 10 packages of unopened Topps baseball cards.  the wax packs from the 70's, the kind that came with about 15 cards per pack with a stick of bubble gum that you bought as a kid. they still have the bubble gum in them. unopened! This is so fucking incredible. I had no idea I had this.

southern miss slacker (304)

Member

Registered: 2017-08-28

Posts: 1,455

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

here are the mini helmets I have. Saints, Pats, jags, jets, cards, skins, panthers, browns, and dolphins.

SoMs Eagle (189)

Member

Registered: 2017-08-29

Posts: 509

Re: Southern Miss vs. North Texas: score prediction thread

what do we win if we predict correctly?

Forget who you were for a minute?